Post election scenarios

Post election scenarios
By Jaime Pilapil

Believe me Malacanang will not be the center of news after the May elections. It will be the Lower House. Why, because the House Speaker is no less than Representative Gloria Macapagal Arroyo of the 2nd District of Pampanga.
Lakas Kampi CMD website says there are more than 145 members of the House of Representatives in its roster, with some opting to run under Liberal Party. I doubt so much if they will stick with LP once they realized that Arroyo’s followers constitute the House majority.
Of course, there will be attempts to unseat the Speaker, as well as efforts to file charges against her before Sandiganbayan in relation to a string of corruption charges.
Usually, politicians change party affiliations after presidential elections. But this time, it’s not the case.
The Senate will install an opposition President.
If ever a non Lakas Kampi CMD will win the presidency, it will be one of the rarest situations when the Lower House will be dominated by congressmen from the opposition party.
If ever the Liberal party will take Malacanang, Noynoy will be forced to field Quezon City 4th District Representative Sonny Belmonte against Arroyo. But I doubt so much if Belmonte will have the courage to challenge Gloria for the speakership.
I can’t see a member of the Nacionalista Party taking the House helm even if Manny Villar wins.
If Gilberto Teodoro will win, then he has the House but not the Senate.
Charter change will top the headlines. Attempts to gather both houses of Congress into a Constituent Assembly will be revived. But this is unpopular to the public and will just die a natural death.
Still, even if a constitutional convention will be held, the question whether to adopt a unicameral congress or stick to the present set up will turn into an ugly debate.
The reason is obvious. Arroyo has the chance to take the Prime Minister post.
In this scenario, the military will once again threaten to launch mutiny not necessarily to save the Republic but to take advantage of the situation. However, this will just be good publicity for the greedy generals and their minions who always look for government posts after retirement.
The Muslim separatist problem will turn worse. More American soldiers will be deployed to Southern Philippines to combat the stronger Abu Sayyaf.
This situation is loved by Malaysia. At least, Sabah is safely under its control. No threats at all.
The New People’s Army will move into the urban areas after additional militant party-lists win the elections. This time communists will have the chance to craft laws and extend influence in policy making.
Automated elections will be cursed by defeated politicians. Killings will continue even after the closing of election booths. As usual goons, gold, guns and lords (drug, gambling) decided the outcome of the polls, especially in the provinces.
What a grim post May 10 elections scenario!
The only good thing after the elections is when both Houses will call for a Constitutional Convention, banning defeated May 10 candidates to run.
Meanwhile, drought will sweep the countryside which means less farm output. Hunger will be at its worst in the provinces.
People will then realize that elections, as in the past, do not bring changes or prosperity in the country. Cabinet Secretaries are recycled. Politicians with private armies rule the countryside.
Private firms, especially the big ones, cheat in paying taxes, depriving the State of the needed purse. Corruption abound in business much like in the government. They bribe government officials to avoid paying bulky taxes.
It’s the Philippine setting, some new faces with old habits. Email your reactions to pilapil.jim@gmail.com -30-

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